Polysilicon Market Size to Surpass USD 35.3 billion in value by 2033

Introduction

The global Polysilicon Market is experiencing substantial growth, with projections indicating a rise from USD 10.3 billion in 2023 to approximately USD 35.3 billion by 2033, reflecting a robust CAGR of 16.7%.

This significant expansion is primarily driven by the accelerating demand for renewable energy sources, particularly solar power, where polysilicon is a crucial component in manufacturing solar photovoltaic (PV) cells. The global push towards cleaner energy and increasing adoption of solar technologies are major growth factors. Furthermore, advancements in polysilicon production technologies and enhanced efficiency in solar panels are contributing to this upward trajectory.

However, the market faces several challenges, including high production costs and supply chain constraints. The polysilicon production process is energy-intensive, leading to high costs and environmental concerns, which can impact profitability. These developments are expected to play a critical role in shaping the market dynamics over the coming years. As the market continues to evolve, the focus on sustainability and technological advancements will be pivotal in overcoming current challenges and capitalizing on growth opportunities in the polysilicon sector.

Recent developments in the polysilicon market highlight significant advancements and strategic moves by key industry players. High-Purity Silicon America Corporation, a notable name in the sector, has recently expanded its production capabilities with a new facility in the United States.

OCI COMPANY Ltd., a major global polysilicon producer, has announced a substantial investment of approximately USD 500 million to enhance its production technology and expand its manufacturing capacity. Qatar Solar Technologies, a key player in the polysilicon sector, has launched a new line of high-purity polysilicon products designed for advanced solar applications. This new product line is expected to improve the efficiency of solar panels, catering to the rising demand for more efficient solar energy solutions. REC Silicon ASA, another prominent player, has secured a significant funding package of USD 250 million to advance its polysilicon production technology. This funding will support the company’s efforts to increase its production capacity and develop new, more sustainable manufacturing processes.

Key Takeaways

Market Growth Projection: The polysilicon market is set to grow significantly, from USD 10.3 billion in 2023 to around USD 35.3 billion by 2033, at a strong annual growth rate of 16.7%. This growth is driven by higher demand for semiconductors and solar panels.
Type Dominance: Series Connection is the leading method for linking solar cells, holding over 65% of the market. Parallel Connection also plays an important role but has a smaller share.
Application Usage: Photovoltaic technology is the major application, making up over 78% of the market due to its efficiency in generating solar power. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) also has a notable share.
Regional Insights: Asia Pacific dominates the market with a 63.2% share due to rapid solar energy growth and high demand for electronics. North America and Latin America are also seeing strong growth.

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Statistics

Bernreuter Research says the volume of polysilicon shipments into China dropped 28.5% year on year in 2023 to the lowest level since 2011. It predicts that imports could fall by another 40% this year.
The research group used Chinese customs statistics to calculate that imports of the feedstock for solar cells and semiconductors fell by 28.5% from 88,093 metric tons (MT) in 2022 to 62,965 MT in 2023. This volume is slightly less than the 64,614 MT reached in 2011.
polysilicon exports to Vietnam from 18,672 MT in 2022 to 33,265 MT in 2023, up 78.2% year on year. Bernreuter Research says this increase “more than compensated” for the 13,918 MT they lost in business volume in China in 2023.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the combined share of Wacker and OCI of total Chinese polysilicon imports rose to 97.8%.
Analysis from OPIS showed that China’s polysilicon prices fell to CNY 60.25 ($8.40)/kg) on Jan. 16, down 51.8% year-on-year
Electrodes in the furnace supply a three-phase current to heat the mixture to approximately 2000 °C, causing the SiO2 to reduce to molten silicon.
This heavier, molten silicon melt is discharged through the bottom of the furnace. This silicon is approximately 98 % pure and termed metallurgical grade silicon (MGS).
According to SMM statistics, the domestic import of polysilicon in October was 3323.70 tons, a decrease of 28.30% compared to the previous month. The cumulative import for 2023 was 56,500 tons, a decrease of 23.10% year-on-year.
The average transaction price for n-type polysilicon fell to CNY 41.8/kg, and granular silicon dropped to CNY 35.3/kg, dropping 5.4% week-on-week. Prices for p-type polysilicon remained relatively stable.
One company is slated to reduce production by over 10,000 tons, while another has opted out of its reduction plans.
polysilicon output in June is anticipated to plummet by 30,000 to 40,000 tons, surpassing a 20% decrease.
Solarbe’s statistics indicate that the average bid price for p-type modules in May was CNY 0.82/W, down 2.3% MoM.
U.S. court has affirmed Hemlock Semiconductor’s claim of nearly $800 million against a subsidiary of insolvent SolarWorld, Hemlock has not been admitted for voting at the creditors’ meeting.
monocrystalline polysilicon prices ranged from CNY 6.88 ($1.01)/kg to CNY 6.50/kg in China this week. This marks an average week-on-week decline of about 3.23%, according to the association.
Trina Solar said its revenue reached CNY 31.74 billion in the third quarter, up 41.25% year on year. It reported a net profit of CNY 1.537 billion, up 35.67% from the same period a year earlier.
The U.S. contributed approximately 25 percent, or 37,713 metric tons, to the global polysilicon supply, second only to China, which produced 33 percent, or 49,691 metric tons.
U.S. to maintain a positive polysilicon trade flow of $2.37 billion, up 125 percent year-over-year from $1.16 billion in 2009.
China, including Taiwan, was the number one destination for U.S. polysilicon, with $873 million in exports.
Other key polysilicon export locations include Japan ($690 million), Norway ($258 million), and Germany ($245 million).
Hoshine Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., the CBP identified about $6 million in direct imports to the United States and about $150 million linked to other solar equipment using Hoshine material in the last year.
That’s $6 million of the $8 billion in solar cells and modules imported in 2020, according to SEIA.
The fracture toughness of single crystal silicon films with 4 μm thickness was also reported to sharply increase above 70 °C from 1.3 to 2.5 MPa m1/2. The increase of fracture toughness of single crystal silicon films at room temperature.
China’s MIIT counts the country’s total solar PV output to have exceeded RMB 1.7 trillion in 2023
Polysilicon and solar module prices declined by over 50% during the reporting year
Almost half of the 499 GW of solar modules produced by local manufacturers were exported, with an increase of 37.9% annually
China’s total national output for polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules in 2023 increased by over 21%. Compared to over RMB 1.4 trillion ($195 billion) in 2022, the output exceeded RMB 1.7 trillion ($236 billion) in 2023.
China produced over 1.43 million tons of polysilicon last year, representing a 66.9% annual increase.
Association (CPIA) said the average electricity energy consumption for silicon reduction decreased by 3.4% and the overall electricity consumption dropped by 5%.
accounting for a market share of around 20% at the beginning of 2023, and growing to 50% by year-end.
The silicon wafer segment produced more than 622 GW, representing an annual jump of 67.5%. Out of this, China exported 70.3 GW with a 65.5% annual increase.
Large-sized wafers of 182 mm and 210 mm are the industry standard now as CPIA says their market share was 98% last year.
China’s solar cell output went up by 64.9% to exceed 545 GW during the reported year. Only 39.3 GW of this was exported, accounting for a 65.5% annual increase.
Again, n-type cells are becoming popular with TOPCon and heterojunction (HJT) market share reaching 25.6%.
CPIA summarizes that the average conversion efficiency of PERC, TOPCon, and HJT cells reached 23.4%, 25%, and 25.2% in 2023.
Chinese PV products declined by 5.39% to $48.48 billion in 2023. The bidding price for modules late last year dropped below RMB 1/W, a 40% decline from the beginning of 2023.
CPIA says as of February 2024, the operating rate of the top 9 module factories was 49%, while the overall operating rate for the module industry was only 23%.
China’s cumulative production capacity of polysilicon exceeds 1.88 million tons, 892 GW for silicon wafers, 844 GW for cells, and over 861 GW for modules.
The evidence provided initially by the petitioner suggests that the aggregate solar-grade polysilicon output of the petitioner has a share of over 50% of the total output of similar products in China.
JinkoSolar’s monocrystalline bifacial N-type TOPCON cells achieved a conversion efficiency of 26.4%. In April this year, Jolywood TOPCON increased this efficiency value to 26.7%
OPCON bifacial rate is about 85%, the temperature rise coefficient is as low as -0.3%/°C, and the power generation per watt of the battery is improved.
At the same time, the decay rate of TOPCON in the first year is 1%, which is 50% of the decay rate of PERC in the first year, and the decay rate of TOPCON is about 0.4% per year.
In the initial equipment investment, the cleaning and texturing equipment was 8 million yuan, accounting for about 5%; The cost of the boron diffusion furnace is about 20 million, accounting for about 12%;
The cost of etching equipment was 12 million, accounting for about 7%; Backside tunneling oxidation and polysilicon doping-related equipment was about 45 million (LPCVD) and 35 million (PECVD);
The cost of double-sided anti-reflection film equipment is about 32 million, accounting for 20%; The cost of screen printing equipment is about 35 million, accounting for 22%.
These stones come with large amounts of impurities in nature which the first stage is dedicated to reduction of impurities and purifying silica to obtain silicon with metallurgical grade with a purity more than 98 percent silicon.
The polysilicon membranes were exposed to four different solutions of the 49% by weight reagent HF.
It was found that the change in the investigated mechanical properties of polysilicon was approximately equal for HF: DI solutions of HF concentration above 10%.
It represents approximately 20% of the total solar cell manufacturing cost.
The transaction price for n-type material ranged from CNY 78 to 85 per kg, with an average of CNY 80.4 per kg, representing a 2.03% weekly increase.
p-type material saw an average price increase of 2.28% for polysilicon recharge, 2.93% for prime for mono, and 3.91% for prime for multi. growth rate of less than 3%.
over 60% of enterprises in the Three Gorges Group bidding had an n-p price difference of less than CNY 0.07/W, indicating a significant decrease compared to before.
The Rsheet,m decreases by more than 30%, and it can be further decreased by 90% if the annealing temperature or duration is increased. The standard deviation coefficient of Rsheet,m is less than 5.0%.
According to statistics from “Grassroots Photovoltaic”, by the end of 2022, the nominal production capacity of polysilicon has reached 1.066 million tons, an increase of 77.81% over 2021.
By the end of 2023, 21 domestic manufacturers will have built a polysilicon production capacity of 2.658 million tons, of which the top 10 manufacturers will have built a total capacity of 2.27 million tons.
After about 1.592 million tons of new production capacity is put online in 2023, about 1.18 million tons of new production capacity will be put on the market in 2024.
polysilicon will reach 3.838 million tons by the end of 2024, just one step away from the 4 million-ton mark.
Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory (AECEA) reported the poly price has risen 25% since the start of the year, to hit an 11-year high of CNY 291/kg in early July.
China PV Industry Association indicated the country produced 98% of the world’s silicon wafers in 2021, and 85% of the combined global output of polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules.

Emerging Trends

Increased Demand for Renewable Energy: The polysilicon market is experiencing a surge in demand driven primarily by the global push towards renewable energy sources. Polysilicon is a key material used in the production of photovoltaic (PV) cells, which are essential for solar panels. As countries around the world set ambitious goals for reducing carbon emissions and increasing their use of solar power, the demand for polysilicon is expected to rise significantly.
Technological Advancements: There have been notable advancements in polysilicon production technology. Innovations such as improved manufacturing processes and the development of higher-purity polysilicon are enhancing the efficiency and performance of solar panels. These advancements are making solar energy more competitive compared to traditional energy sources, which in turn drives greater demand for polysilicon.
Price Fluctuations and Market Dynamics: The polysilicon market has experienced significant price fluctuations in recent years. Prices have been influenced by factors such as production capacity changes, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in global demand. While there have been periods of high prices due to supply shortages, recent trends suggest a stabilization as new production facilities come online and supply chains adapt.
Geopolitical and Trade Factors: Geopolitical tensions and trade policies play a crucial role in the polysilicon market. For instance, trade tariffs and restrictions imposed by major markets can impact the flow of polysilicon between countries. Manufacturers are closely monitoring these factors to manage risks and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Environmental and Sustainability Concerns: There is a growing emphasis on the environmental impact of polysilicon production. The industry is facing pressure to adopt more sustainable practices, including reducing the carbon footprint of production processes and improving waste management. Companies are investing in cleaner technologies and practices to meet regulatory requirements and address environmental concerns.
Expansion of Production Capacity: To meet the increasing demand, polysilicon producers are expanding their production capacities. New facilities are being established, and existing ones are being upgraded to produce more polysilicon. This expansion is aimed at reducing the cost of polysilicon and ensuring a steady supply to the growing solar energy market.
Market Consolidation: The polysilicon market is witnessing consolidation as larger companies acquire smaller players to enhance their market position and operational efficiencies. This trend is reshaping the competitive landscape and could impact pricing and supply dynamics in the future.
Regional Market Dynamics: Different regions are experiencing varying trends in the polysilicon market. For example, Asia-Pacific, particularly China, remains a dominant player in polysilicon production. Meanwhile, other regions like North America and Europe are increasing their focus on developing domestic production capabilities to reduce reliance on imports.
Innovations in Recycling and Reuse: Recycling and reusing polysilicon from old solar panels is becoming a focus area. Developing effective recycling technologies helps reduce the environmental impact and creates a more sustainable supply chain for polysilicon.
Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations: Companies are forming strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance their technological capabilities and expand their market reach. These alliances are often aimed at sharing research and development costs, accessing new markets, and improving product offerings.

Use Cases

Solar Photovoltaics (Solar PV): The primary use of polysilicon is in the solar PV industry, which accounted for approximately 75.2% of the market’s revenue in 2023. Polysilicon is a critical material for producing solar cells, and the growing adoption of solar energy technologies has significantly boosted demand. Innovations in solar cell efficiency and government initiatives promoting renewable energy sources have further propelled this segment. The polysilicon market is projected to reach $41.5 billion by 2034, growing at a robust CAGR of 9.9%.
Electronics and Semiconductors: Polysilicon is also essential in the electronics industry, particularly for semiconductors. High-purity polysilicon is used in manufacturing components such as integrated circuits and microchips. The demand in this sector is driven by the expanding electronics market and advancements in semiconductor technologies. The electronics-grade polysilicon segment continues to grow, with significant contributions from regions like East Asia and North America.
Growth Factors: The polysilicon market is driven by the increasing demand for renewable energy and technological advancements in solar PV and electronics. Government policies and incentives supporting clean energy adoption are significant growth catalysts. For instance, the U.S. Department of Energy reported a 17% increase in PV module imports in Q1 2023, reflecting the rising polysilicon demand.

Key Players Analysis

High-Purity Silicon America Corporation specializes in producing high-quality polysilicon for the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries. Based in the U.S., the company focuses on creating ultra-pure silicon materials essential for efficient solar cells and advanced electronic components. Their operations emphasize sustainable practices and innovation to meet the growing demand for renewable energy sources.

OCI Company Ltd., a South Korea-based leader in polysilicon production supplies high-purity polysilicon crucial for semiconductor and solar power applications. The company recently expanded its production capacity in Malaysia, investing $617.9 million to increase output from 35,000 to 56,600 metric tons annually by 2027. This expansion aligns with OCI’s strategy to meet the rising global demand for polysilicon in the growing semiconductor market.

Qatar Solar Technologies (QSTec) is a leading player in the polysilicon sector, operating the largest polysilicon facility in the MENA region. Located in Ras Laffan Industrial City, their plant has an annual production capacity of 8,000 metric tonnes, with plans to expand to 50,000 metric tonnes. The facility features advanced environmentally friendly technologies, including energy-efficient cooling systems and waste recycling processes.

REC Silicon ASA is a prominent polysilicon manufacturer with operations primarily in the United States. The company produces high-purity polysilicon for the solar and electronics industries, boasting an annual production capacity of over 20,000 metric tonnes. REC Silicon focuses on cost-efficient manufacturing processes and sustainability, utilizing advanced fluidized bed reactor technology to reduce energy consumption and emissions.

Tongwei Group Co., Ltd is a leading player in the polysilicon sector, recognized for its substantial production capacity. Recently, Tongwei launched the second phase of its high-purity polysilicon project in Yunnan, which will increase its production capacity to over 250,000 tons annually, making it the largest polysilicon production base globally. The company plans to expand its capacity to 350,000 tons by the end of the year and aims to reach between 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2026.

Tokuyama Corporation is a significant player in the polysilicon market, known for its high-quality production capabilities. The company has focused on producing high-purity polysilicon used in semiconductor and photovoltaic applications. Tokuyama has been expanding its production capacity to meet the increasing demand from the solar industry.

Wacker Chemie AG is a prominent player in the polysilicon sector, focusing on producing high-purity polysilicon for the solar and semiconductor industries. The company is known for its advanced manufacturing technologies and extensive research capabilities, positioning itself as a key supplier in the global market. Wacker Chemie has been investing in expanding its production capacity and improving its product quality to meet the increasing demand for solar energy applications.

Daqo New Energy Co., Ltd.: Daqo New Energy Co., Ltd., a leading polysilicon producer, focuses on high-purity polysilicon for the solar photovoltaic industry. The company operates two major production bases in China and is known for its advanced manufacturing technology and competitive pricing. Daqo’s recent expansions aim to meet the rising global demand for solar energy, positioning it as a key player in the market.

GCL-TECH: GCL-TECH, part of the GCL Group, is a major polysilicon supplier with a significant presence in the solar industry. The company is renowned for its large-scale production facilities in China and ongoing technological advancements that drive efficiency and cost-effectiveness. GCL-TECH has been expanding its production capacity and investing in research to support the growing global solar market.

Hemlock Semiconductor Operations LLC is a leading player in the polysilicon market, specializing in high-purity polysilicon used in solar and semiconductor applications. Based in the U.S., the company focuses on advancing technology and increasing production capacity to meet the growing global demand for clean energy solutions. Hemlock is known for its significant investments in expanding its manufacturing capabilities and research initiatives to stay competitive in the evolving market.

Conclusion

The Polysilicon Market is experiencing robust growth driven by the rising demand for renewable energy, particularly solar power, and advancements in semiconductor technology. The sector is seeing significant investments in production expansion and technological innovations to meet global energy needs and enhance efficiency. Companies like Hemlock Semiconductor Operations LLC and GCL-TECH are key players, contributing to the market’s dynamism with their large-scale production capabilities and cutting-edge research. Despite challenges such as fluctuating raw material costs and environmental regulations, the market is poised for continued expansion as the world transitions towards cleaner energy solutions.

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